The Big Picture:
Early in our career, we learned the importance of
recognizing when the market was telling you that you were wrong. While some
people dismiss this out of hand, claiming to be only “early” or “late,” we do
not adhere to that philosophical dodge.
You either nail it or you don’t.
That’s why each and every one of our market forecasts has a
built in error detector, a line in the sand where we must acknowledge that the
market is behaving differently than anticipated. Those lines, laid out on May
2nd (and before), were Dow 10,400, Nasdaq 1990, and SPX 1165. The SPX crossed
first, then the Nazz and finally the Dow last Wednesday. That was the signal to
us that a bearish stance was untenable, at least for the intermediate term.
Having those upside triggers performs two functions: first, it creates a stop
loss on any market call. While we are willing to be wrong (and quite frequently are)
we are unwilling to stay wrong.