FT.com | Willem Buiter's Maverecon | After the Crisis: Macro Imbalance, Credibility and Reserve-Currency:
There is a major difference between the present conditions and those prevailing at the time Keynes elaborated his theses. The General Theory is of 1936. Before that, from 1932 on, sketches of the argument could be found in his essays.[3] In 1932, the economy was still in profound depression, but - as known today - due in a large extent to the errors of monetary policy, the excess of debt of the private sector had been eliminated by the collapse of the financial system. The generalized bankruptcy of banks and firms solved the problem of excessive indebtedness. Banks, enterprises and households were broken, but with no debts. The costs were dramatic, but the excess of debt disappeared. The fact that the mistakes of 1929 have not been repeated, lead to circumstances far different from those of 1932. Financial collapse was avoided and despite the severity of the recession, we are still far from the thorough disorganization of the economy and massive unemployment -close to 30% of the labor force - of the Great Depression. The economy, however, almost two years after the beginning of the crisis, continues to be overwhelmed by unredeemable debts. As long as households and firms continue to bear the brunt of excessive debt, they will try to reduce expenditures and increase savings. Until debt is reduced to levels which are perceived as reasonable, the private sector expenditure will be exceptionally low. After the Great Depression, in the early thirties, there was a lack of demand because there was no economic activity and no income. Today, the lack of demand is the result of the exceptionally high rate of savings required to bring back private debt to reasonable levels. These are very different situations.
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