FT.com | Willem Buiter's Maverecon | After the Crisis: Macro Imbalance, Credibility and Reserve-Currency:
The question of a world reserve-currency was recently brought up by the president of the Chinese central bank. At first, this could be interpreted as nothing more than retaliation to the repeated declarations of American authorities that China has been manipulating its currency. The article of Zhou Xiaochuan, president of China’s central bank, is however sensible and well reasoned.[8] A supra-national reserve-currency is probably the most important element in the search for a more balanced world. The imbalance of the last decades is due, on the one side, to the unrestricted expansion of expenditures and indebtedness in the central countries and, on the other side, by a conservative export led stance, geared to the accumulation of foreign reserves, in the emerging countries. The issue of credibility, the ultimate determinant of the asymmetry between countries issuing reserve-currencies and all others, is at the root of the two types of behavior.
Modern money is purely fiduciary. It relies only on the credibility of the issuer. Credibility depends, above all, on the perception of economic and financial soundness of the issuer. It also requires a sense of responsibility from the issuer; responsibility for not abusing the privilege bestowed on it. But this does not exhaust the question of credibility. The credibility of a currency is based on the perception of an overall economic soundness of the issuer, but mainly its political, legal and institutional framework. A currency does not acquire the right of being a reserve-currency, to be used in international transactions, without the perception of economic, political, legal and institutional soundness of its issuer. The US dollar, according to these criteria, was a far better alternative than any other, since Bretton Woods. The resounding failure of the attempt to transform the artificial currency of the IMF, the Special Drawing Rights, into a world currency is thus understandable.
Recent Comments